Welcome to the forums miguelnunes and thanks for the info. Everything you stated pretty much makes sense and I agree with the whole high demand and change over to DDR2 comments.
Winbond and ProMOS pursue capacity expansion amid industry downturn. Despite most observers forecasting an industry downturn in 2005, both Winbond Electronics and ProMOS Technologies recently secured bank loans for funding construction of their respective 12-inch fabs, and both companies reaffirmed confidence in their capacity expansion plans.
Industry players estimate that there will be a 30-40% decline in the average selling price (ASP) of memory chips this year, although the decline in price should be eased by the makers’ maturing process capabilities. Players explained that the migration to more advanced nodes will stabilize this year and help suppress costs. However, total output of 512Mbit DDR chips or DDR2 will still be constrained by technology barriers, and this should keep output at a reasonable level and help prevent any serious oversupply.
Here is aLINK
to the Winbond/ProMOS article for all those that want to read it.
I also like to note that The Inq has posted a response to our article after it was posted...
"First off, an article over at Legit Reviews claims to be the be all and end all of this matter. The Legit guys talked to a bunch of companies and got official comments from them all, and claim these comments prove the INQ wrong. They don't. The comments are merely the public faces of a bunch of RAM companies who are suddenly facing big changes in their stock. At least two of the companies that 'Legit' interviewed that told them that there was no problem, told the INQ a completely different story, off the record and on the phone. Moral of the story? As Jeremy Paxman once said, when talking to people on the record, always think: "Why are these lying bastards lying to me?"
I find it funny that we talked to all these companies on the phone also and off the record and yes we were told more things. None of which said there was a supply isssue for months to come.
It isn't that were are proving the INQ wrong it's that we are stating that the current supply and production levels will last months.