DDR3 Memory won't be mainstream till 2009

[Apoptosis]

DRAMeXchange expects DDR3 won¡¦t become the new mainstream standard until 2009

April 17, 2007----Amid sluggish market demand, DRAM spot prices continued to drop. Contract prices for 2HApr are also expected to decline further, but at a slower rate. On a different note, Intel will officially unveil the Bearlake chipsets for DTs at the end of April. The new P35 and G33 will be compatible with both the DDR2 and DDR3 memory modules. Therefore, DDR3 supportable motherboards and modules will soon begin to appear in the market in 2Q07. However, as the DDR3 512Mb chip price is still too expensive, it is expected they won¡¦t become the mainstream standard until 2009, according to DRAMeXchange.

Declining prices continued to be seen in the weak spot market. The DDR2 512Mb 667MHz slipped to USD 2.69, and the DDR2 eTT tumbled to USD 2.36. Contract prices for 2HApr should also experience additional declines, due to the quarterly results released by US-based PC OEMs. However, prices do appear to be more stabilizing, as the DDR2 667MHz 512MB contract price may be settled at roughly USD 20.

With May soon approaching, the high seasonal sales in the PC market is expected to occur in 3Q07. The increased PC shipments and Vista adoption rates should help boost the DRAM content per box in 2H07. Therefore, numerous retailers and module houses are beginning to build their inventory levels ahead of the anticipated strong DRAM demand in 2H07, which will help stabilize the DRAM prices.

Another development worthy of pointing out is the Bearlake chipset launch for the DT at the end of April by Intel. The new chipset includes the mainstream Bearlake-P and IGP Bearlake-G in handling the future DT requirements. Among the various models, the P35 and G33 chipsets not only feature a 1333MHz FSB, it is also compatible with both the DDR2 and DDR3 memory modules, supporting both DDR2-800 and DDR3-1333. Therefore, DDR3 motherboards and DRAM modules will soon begin to appear in the market in 2Q07.

The DDR3 can achieve a maximum transfer speed of 1600MHz. By contrast, the DDR2 runs merely at 800MHz. The DDR3 is also more power-consuming, as it uses only 1.5V of power, instead of the 1.8V for DDR2. By comparing the DDR3 800, DDR3 1066 and DDR3 1333 with the DDR2 800, the average power usage drops respectively by 25%, 29% and 40%.

With the DDR3 512Mb chip still above the USD 20 level, the DDR3 512MB module price currently stands at roughly USD 180. This is 8 times higher than the USD 23 DDR2 512MB modules. In light of the high prices, the DDR3 is not expected to become the new standard in 2007. Only until the 70nm manufacturing process becomes more mature, will DRAM makers be able to mass produce the DDR3 chips, which is not expected to occur until 2009.

About DRAMeXchange

DRAMeXchange is a global leading provider of market intelligence, in-depth analysis reports and consultant services on major electronics components. Our company consists of 2 major research divisions---DRAMeXchange and WitsView, which cover the DRAM, NAND Flash, PC and display research sectors. You can learn more about DRAMeXchange by visiting http://www.dramexchange.com

In the year 2000, the company started to deliver market intelligence services under the name of DRAMeXchange technology. This included the current business environment, real-time spot trading prices, market trends, capital spending , wafer capacity trends, the impact of DRAM/flash memory products on the market, and other relevant PC industry information.

To further expand its research, DRAMeXchange acquired LCD research institute WitsView in 2006 to provide insights on the display industry.