DRAMeXchange Compuforum - Trends of the Memory Industry

[Apoptosis]

DRAMeXchange Compuforum ‘08: Decipher the Development Trends of the Memory and Storage Industry

Taipei, June 4, 2008 – Deemed as one of the most successful international events at the 2008 Taipei Computex show, DRAMeXchange yesterday held its annual conference at the brand-new Nangang Exhibition Hall. Conference participants, ranging from leading memory storage to professionals to numerous related industry experts, came from more than 20 countries.


Three key analysts from the Industry Research Division of DRAMeXchange discussed the opportunities and challenges of the DRAM and NAND Flash sectors as well as the current market current trend of China’s memory module market:

Joyce Yang, Vice President of Industry Research Division, indicated that amid the diminishing presence of the 8-inch fabs, slower expansion of the 12-inch fabs and DRAM makers’ reducing capital spending by 37% (YoY), the overall industry growth rate is expected to reach around 55% - which, compared to last year’s 93%, has substantially declined by 40%. As for the development in the chip process technology, the mainstream production process of DDR2 will shift from 70nm 8F2 to 65nm 6F2, and 5Xnm by the end of this year. Such trend stems from the need to further lower production costs in gaining a favorable edge in the intense market competition.

On the other hand, Jeff Chen, Senior Analyst of Industry Research noted that when it comes to getting into the China DRAM module market, distribution is the most important determining factor, along with working with strong, resourceful local distributors. China’s market is desirable in the eyes of many major module makers, because the ratio of China’s desktop PC sales accounts for more than that of the rest of the world combined, and the need for spot DRAM is still relatively high. For module makers, the strength of distribution channels and the production costs are two important factors that need to be considered for a successful DRAM business in China. Currently, the distribution of China’s DRAM is primarily operated by in the Chaozhou and Shenzhen regions.

Wayne Chen, Director of Industry Research Division, pointed out that as the infrastructure of global wireless broadband network (3.5-4G & WiMax) develops, more growth opportunities for portable electronics will appear. With the global launch of HDTV, the need for higher storage capacity will subsequently increase. This increase the NAND Flash usage in electronic storage devices and create more business opportunities for storage applications.



Separately, six guest speakers also shared their valuable industry experience and professional viewpoint at the event:
　

Qimonda: Up to 75% of power can be saved by the “right” memory & system
Peter Schaefer, Vice President for Product Line Server of Qimonda AG, focused on how to achieve power saving and carbon reduction through its Buried wordline process and chip miniaturization. The goal is to lower the power usage and increase performance. Based on the power usage of global PCs, Qimonda's products lowers the voltage from 18v to 1.55 v (a 20% reduction in power consumption), and through the AMB’s control, it can be lowered by another 10%, thereby reducing the carbon consumption.



SanDisk: SSDs will consume 1/3 of the NAND Flash output in 2012

Doreet Oren, Director Product Marketing of SanDisk Israel, indicated SSDs will consume 1/3 of the NAND Flash output in 2012, which is far larger than all other application products combined. This trend will also bring in billions of dollars of business opportunities for SSD manufacturers. It is expected that the storage capacity of SSDs can reach 256GB in 2010 and hence emerge as the mainstream data storage device in the near future.



Silicon Motion: SSD won’t become mainstream applications without using MLC NAND,

World’s largest NAND flash controller provider, Silicon Motion Technology’s C.E.O., Wallace Kou, noted SLC cost is about 2X that of MLC chips with the same density. SSD won’t become the mainstream application if MLC NAND is not used. Thus, development of SSD's MLC NAND Flash is a key factor for cost reduction.

However, MLC SSD faces major application problems and in order to improve their inherent limitations, it is important to rely on the controller to increase the speed, stability and the number of read/write times. Currently, controller manufacturers use bad block management, error correcting code and wear leveling to enhance the life of MLC chip in SSDs.



ASUSTek: 1 billion low-priced PCs with SSD storage in the market, and possibly up to 5 billion units in 2011.

Samson Hu, General Manager of EPC Business Unit of ASUSTek, indicated that numerous industry professionals feel optimistic about the SSD application in PC after ASUSTek launched its Eee PC during 4Q07, which used 4GB/8GB SSDs, . Major PC manufacturers also launched similar products during 2Q08 after the success of ASUSTek's Eee Pc launch. Currently, there are about 1 billion low-priced PCs with SSD storage application in the market, and possibly up to 5 billion units in 2011.



Hitachi GST: As storage capacity will continue to expand, reasonable price advantage will create business opportunities for HDD makers

Mr. Robert Chu, Vice President of the Asia-Pacific region of Hitachi Global Storage Technology, pointed out that the current applications of HDD in the IT industry are for enterprises, NB PC and DTPC. For the consumer electronics, there are home/personal data storage, DVR, MP3/PMP, game machines, and automation equipment. HDD enjoys the advantage of featuring a higher storage capacity, bit cost and performance. As capacity demand of new applications increases, storage capacity will continue to expand. As a result, the bigger storage capacity and reasonable price advantage will create new business opportunities for HDD makers.



Seagate: HDD is seen as the leading device for explosion of storage in the home

According to Seagate’s Executive Director of Korea/Taiwan, Brian Wickman, HDD manufactures focused on the exploding demand for enterprise HDD market in the past few years. From now on, amid the arrival of the Broadband/Internet era, HDD is seen as the leading device for the storage of the enormous amount of information transferred through the network for the consumer market.

Wickman forecasted that scale of global storage will reach 374 Exabytes in 2012 with an average home storage of 185 Exabytes. Meanwhile, Seagate will introduce its first SSD storage and 2T-byte hard drive next year. The company's first SSD product will be targeted at enterprises that need speedy storage and can afford to pay a premium price.