3Q Notebook shipment growth lower than 5% for order cut
Posted: Thu Aug 19, 2010 6:02 am
DRAMeXchange: 3Q NB shipment growth lower than 5% for order cut
Aug 19th,2010- July revenue of PC vendors are beyond consensus due to the weak demand. According to DRAMeXchange, the research division of Trendforce, 3Q NB shipment QoQ will be lowered to below 5% from 12.8% given the slow recovery for European and American market and order cut from OEMs.
According to DRAMeXchange, U.S economy is still sluggish while European is still in the trough. China has outperformed other regions but merely meet the consensus. PC-OEMs cuts order to meet the current demand and inventory level. DRAMeXchange also adjust down the 2010 NB shipment to the level less than 195M units. Shipment in 2H10 will likely be tied to the shipment in 1H10.
Most OEM and ODM show the conservative view and wait for the demand in end of August. Despite of the 70% mom growth from Acer in August, DRAMeXchange believe that it is due to the different shipment recognition for different vendors. The real demand still needs to be determined from channel sales.
According to EnergyTrend, the research division of Trendforce, battery industry is highly correlated to notebook industry and also impact by the slow notebook shipment in 3Q10. Individual notebook needs 7 to 8 cell battery and TWN battery vendors are mainly focus on notebook battery. That is, 3Q10 performance of battery vendors will remain flat or mild increase and less visibility in 4Q10. The situation will not be re-shaped without the key component shortage in 4Q10.
The competition from EMS will also accelerate the pricing pressure. According to DRAMeXchange, OEMs are more willing to allocate order to EMS in 2011 and competition between EMS and ODM will drag down the industry margin. EMS will rapidly increase the market share in leverage of excellent capability in component integration.
About TRENDFORCE
TRENDFORCE is a global leading research institution providing market intelligence, in-depth analysis reports and consultant services on technology sector. Our company consists of 4 major research divisions---DRAMeXchange, WitsView, LEDinside and EnergyTrend which cover the DRAM, NAND Flash, PC, display ,LED and Green energy research sectors respectively . www.trendforce.com
DRAMexchange
In the year of 2000, the company started to deliver market intelligence services under the name of DRAMeXchange.
This includes the latest industrial scenario, real-time spot trading prices, market trends, capital spending and wafer capacity trends, the impact of DRAM/flash memory products on the market, and other relevant PC industry information.www.DRAMeXchange.com